Research Center
Quarterly reports on the State of AI Agent Economics
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Live Network Metrics
Real-time data tracking the AI-Bitcoin convergence
About This Research
This research center publishes quarterly reports tracking the AI-Bitcoin convergence through real data, transparent methodology, and honest competitive analysis.
Each report includes: transaction volume data (Lightning, L402, x402), case studies of AI agents using Bitcoin and competing payment rails, infrastructure growth metrics, market analysis, and forward-looking predictions.
Methodology: We don't cherry-pick data. If x402/USDC is outpacing L402/Bitcoin in adoption, we document that honestly and analyze why. Intellectual honesty is the brand.
State of Play: The AI Agent Money Layer — February 2026
First comprehensive baseline report on L402 vs x402: Which payment rail will AI agents choose? Tracking Bitcoin Lightning vs USDC stablecoins for machine intelligence.
Key Findings
- L402 Launch: Lightning Labs shipped production AI agent toolkit Feb 12 — day zero for Bitcoin-native AI payments
- x402 Reality Check: 50M+ total transactions but 92% daily volume decline since December 2025 peak
- ERC-8004: 21,500+ AI agents registered on-chain in first 17 days — payment rail choice still unclear
- Thesis Test: Permissionless Bitcoin infrastructure vs corporate-backed stablecoins — data will decide
Quarterly Report Structure
1. Transaction Volume Data
Lightning Network metrics, L402 endpoint adoption, x402 transaction counts, competitive analysis
2. Infrastructure Growth
New tools launched, payment protocol adoption, AI agent wallet deployments, developer activity
3. Case Studies
Real AI agents using Bitcoin/Lightning, behavioral patterns, use cases, economic decisions
4. Competitive Landscape
L402 (Bitcoin-native) vs x402 (stablecoin) vs traditional payment rails—adoption comparison with honest analysis
5. Forward-Looking Analysis
Trend projections, confidence intervals, emerging patterns, predictions for next quarter
Live Data Dashboard
Real-time metrics tracked continuously:
- Lightning Network nodes, channels, capacity
- AI agents with Bitcoin/Lightning wallets
- L402 endpoint deployments
- x402 transaction volumes
- ERC-8004 agent registrations
- Infrastructure launches
Dashboard coming soon—automated data collection pipeline in development